Why Global Oil Prices Are Rising During Conflict and What It Could Mean for the UK

11 March 2026

Paul Francis

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Oil markets rarely respond calmly to geopolitical conflict. When tensions escalate in regions that play a key role in global energy production or transportation, markets react quickly, often pushing prices sharply upward within hours of the first reports of escalation.

That is exactly what is happening now.

Stacked colorful barrels viewed from above, featuring red, blue, green, orange, and white tops. The pattern creates a vibrant mosaic.

Global oil prices have surged as conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. Brent crude, the international benchmark used to price most of the world’s oil, has climbed above $100 per barrel and has briefly approached levels near $120. These prices have not been seen since the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

At first glance, it might seem logical to assume that prices are rising because oil production has already fallen dramatically. In reality, that is often not the case. In many situations, the oil is still being pumped, transported and sold as normal.

Instead, markets are reacting to the risk that supply could be disrupted in the near future. Oil traders and financial markets constantly try to anticipate problems before they fully materialise. When conflict threatens infrastructure, shipping routes or production facilities, the possibility of disruption alone can be enough to drive prices higher.

Understanding why this happens requires looking not only at oil production itself, but also at the complex global systems that support the energy trade.

The Current Situation Driving Oil Prices Higher

The latest surge in oil prices is closely linked to rising tensions in the Middle East, one of the most strategically important regions for global energy supply. The region contains some of the world’s largest oil reserves and serves as a major hub for exporting crude to international markets.

Several factors are currently combining to push prices upward. One of the most immediate concerns is the safety of energy infrastructure. When military activity increases in areas that host oil fields, refineries or pipelines, there is always a risk that facilities could be damaged or forced to halt operations temporarily. Even limited disruptions can have significant consequences because global oil supply chains operate with relatively little spare capacity.

Shipping routes are also a major concern. One of the most important chokepoints in the global energy system is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply travels through this corridor each day on large tanker ships. If conflict threatens this route, even indirectly, it immediately raises concerns that shipments could be delayed or restricted.

Markets are also reacting to uncertainty about how the conflict could evolve. Energy traders are not only looking at current production levels but also asking whether the situation could escalate further. If additional countries become involved or if key infrastructure is targeted, the impact on global supply could be significant. This uncertainty creates volatility in energy markets and encourages traders to prepare for potential shortages.

The result is a rapid increase in oil futures prices as markets attempt to price in these risks before they fully develop.

Why Oil Prices Often Rise As Soon As Wars Begin

One of the most fascinating aspects of the oil market is how quickly it responds to geopolitical shocks. Prices often surge almost immediately after wars begin, sometimes before any real supply disruption has occurred.

This happens because oil markets operate largely on expectations rather than purely on current supply and demand. Oil is traded globally through futures markets, where contracts are bought and sold based on what traders believe the price of oil will be weeks or months in the future. When a conflict begins, traders quickly begin to factor in the possibility that production, transport or refining could be interrupted later.

Even if oil production continues normally in the early stages of a conflict, the possibility that supply might fall is enough to drive buying activity. Investors begin purchasing oil contracts to hedge against future shortages, which pushes prices higher in the short term.

Another factor that amplifies this reaction is the concentration of oil supply in a relatively small number of regions. The Middle East, in particular, plays a critical role in global energy production. Because such a large share of the world’s oil passes through a handful of strategic shipping routes and production areas, markets are extremely sensitive to any threat in these locations.

Financial markets also contribute to the speed of price movements. Oil is not only traded by companies that physically need it for fuel or manufacturing. Hedge funds, banks and investment firms also trade energy contracts as financial assets. When geopolitical tensions rise, many of these investors move quickly to position themselves for higher prices, which adds additional upward pressure to the market.

Transportation risks can intensify the situation further. When conflicts occur near key shipping lanes, insurance companies often raise premiums for oil tankers operating in those regions. In some cases, shipping companies may delay voyages or reroute vessels to avoid dangerous waters. Even if oil production continues at normal levels, transportation disruptions can tighten supply and contribute to price volatility.

The Pattern History Has Shown

History provides numerous examples of how conflicts can trigger sudden spikes in oil prices. Over the past fifty years, geopolitical crises have repeatedly demonstrated the sensitivity of energy markets to instability.

The oil embargo of the 1970s created one of the most dramatic shocks in modern economic history, sending prices soaring and contributing to a period of global inflation and economic slowdown. Years later, the Gulf War in the early 1990s produced another sharp rise in crude prices as markets feared that fighting in Iraq and Kuwait could remove large amounts of oil from the global supply.

More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 pushed oil prices above $110 per barrel as traders anticipated sanctions, supply disruptions and wider geopolitical fallout. Although production in some regions eventually stabilised, the initial market reaction was swift and dramatic.

These episodes illustrate an important reality about energy markets. Prices often move quickly when uncertainty appears, because traders attempt to anticipate future disruptions rather than waiting for supply to collapse. Fear and uncertainty can therefore influence prices long before pipelines slow down or tankers stop moving.

What This Could Mean for the UK

For the United Kingdom, rising oil prices can have consequences that reach far beyond the global energy market. Because oil is a fundamental input for transport, manufacturing and logistics, higher prices tend to ripple through the entire economy.

One of the most visible effects is at the petrol station. Fuel prices in the UK generally follow movements in global oil markets, although there is often a delay while wholesale fuel contracts adjust. If elevated oil prices persist, motorists are likely to see higher costs at the pump in the weeks ahead.

The effects do not stop with fuel. Transportation is a major cost for businesses, and when diesel prices rise, it becomes more expensive to move goods around the country. Logistics firms, delivery services and shipping companies all face higher operating costs, which often leads to increased prices for consumers.

This can contribute to wider inflationary pressures across the economy. Energy costs influence everything from food distribution to manufacturing and aviation, meaning higher oil prices can push up the cost of many everyday products. For policymakers and central banks, this creates additional challenges when trying to control inflation and manage interest rates.

There are also broader questions about energy security. Although the UK still produces some oil and gas from the North Sea, it remains closely connected to global energy markets. Changes in international supply and demand therefore, have a direct impact on domestic prices and investment decisions. Prolonged instability in energy markets could influence future debates around energy policy, domestic production and diversification of supply.

A Market Driven by Uncertainty

The current surge in oil prices highlights how closely global energy markets are tied to geopolitical developments. Even before supply is physically disrupted, the possibility of future shortages can be enough to trigger sharp movements in price.

Markets are constantly attempting to anticipate what might happen next, balancing supply risks, financial speculation and geopolitical uncertainty in real time. For now, traders and governments alike are watching developments closely to see whether the current tensions escalate further or begin to stabilise.

In the oil market, uncertainty often moves faster than the oil itself.

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The Lost Legends of Cinema: Films That Never Came to Be

Connor Banks
Aug 12, 2024
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In the glittering world of Hollywood, not all dreams make it to the silver screen. Some projects, despite their enormous potential and the star-studded talent attached to them, remain forever in the realm of "what could have been." Among these are some of the most intriguing and ambitious films never made, each with its own unique story that has captivated the imaginations of fans and filmmakers alike. From Alejandro Jodorowsky’s psychedelic epic to George Miller’s ambitious superhero ensemble, these unproduced films offer a glimpse into alternate cinematic realities.

Jodorowsky's Dune: The Psychedelic Epic

Jodorowsky's Dune stands out as perhaps the most legendary of these unfinished projects. In the mid-1970s, avant-garde filmmaker Alejandro Jodorowsky embarked on an audacious quest to adapt Frank Herbert’s science fiction masterpiece, "Dune." His vision was nothing short of revolutionary, intending to create a 10-14 hour cinematic experience that would transcend traditional film and become a transformative journey for viewers. Jodorowsky assembled an extraordinary team, including surrealist artist Salvador Dalí, Orson Welles, Mick Jagger, and H.R. Giger, with a soundtrack by Pink Floyd. Despite the staggering talent and creativity involved, the project was ultimately deemed too ambitious and costly. Financial and logistical issues, combined with Hollywood's reluctance to back such an unconventional vision, led to its demise. The story of "Jodorowsky’s Dune" was later immortalised in a 2013 documentary, offering a fascinating look at what might have been and showcasing the profound influence it had on future science fiction films.

The Man Who Killed Don Quixote: A Dream Delayed

The Man Who Killed Don Quixote concept art piece

Equally compelling is Terry Gilliam’s "The Man Who Killed Don Quixote." Gilliam, known for his work with Monty Python and his uniquely surreal directorial style, spent nearly three decades attempting to bring this project to life. The film, a loose adaptation of Miguel de Cervantes’ classic novel, faced an extraordinary array of setbacks. The initial production in 2000 was plagued by natural disasters, financial issues, and a severe back injury suffered by lead actor Jean Rochefort. These calamities, captured in the documentary "Lost in La Mancha," halted the project, and subsequent attempts to revive it faced similar challenges. It wasn’t until 2018 that Gilliam finally completed the film, though it differed significantly from his original vision. The journey of "The Man Who Killed Don Quixote" remains a testament to artistic perseverance, highlighting the often tumultuous path from script to screen.

Atuk: The Cursed Comedy

"Atuk," based on Mordecai Richler’s novel "The Incomparable Atuk," has earned its place in Hollywood legend due to the so-called "Atuk curse." This comedy about an Inuit navigating the modern urban jungle was attached to several high-profile actors, each of whom died under tragic and unexpected circumstances before production could begin. John Belushi, Sam Kinison, John Candy, and Chris Farley all expressed interest or were cast in the lead role, only to meet untimely deaths. The eerie pattern of misfortune has led to a macabre fascination with the project, ensuring that "Atuk" remains one of the most infamous unproduced films in history.

Batman: Year One: The Dark Reimagining

Concept of Gotham City as seen from Above

In the realm of superhero cinema, Darren Aronofsky’s "Batman: Year One" represents a radical departure from the traditional portrayals of the Dark Knight. Aronofsky, known for his dark and psychologically intense films, envisioned a gritty reboot of Batman that would strip the character down to his essence. This version of Bruce Wayne would lose his fortune, live on the streets, and don a makeshift costume. Despite the intriguing premise, Warner Bros. ultimately chose a different path, opting for Christopher Nolan’s "Batman Begins," which balanced realism with a more traditional narrative. Aronofsky’s bold vision remains a fascinating "what if" scenario, reflecting the creative risks involved in reimagining iconic characters.

Justice League: Mortal: The Superhero Ensemble That Almost Was

Finally, George Miller’s "Justice League: Mortal" was an ambitious attempt to bring together DC Comics' most iconic superheroes in a single film long before the success of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. With a cast that included Armie Hammer as Batman, D.J. Cotrona as Superman, and Megan Gale as Wonder Woman, the project promised a sprawling, epic narrative. However, it was plagued by a series of setbacks, including the 2007-2008 Writers Guild of America strike, financial issues, and concerns over audience confusion due to multiple actors playing the same characters in different franchises. Despite never being made, "Justice League: Mortal" has become a source of endless speculation and interest, illustrating the complexities and challenges of launching a shared cinematic universe.

The Allure of the Unmade

These unproduced films, each with their unique blend of ambition, talent, and misfortune, offer a tantalising glimpse into the alternate realities of cinema. They stand as reminders of the fragile nature of filmmaking, where even the most promising projects can falter and fall into the realm of legend. Yet, their stories continue to inspire, serving as both cautionary tales and sources of endless fascination for those who dream of what might have been.